{"id":15046,"date":"2025-11-18T06:38:36","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T06:38:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news2.watchtowatch.top\/seahawks-177-million-problem-is-quickly-becoming-impossible-to-ignore\/"},"modified":"2025-11-18T06:38:36","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T06:38:36","slug":"seahawks-177-million-problem-is-quickly-becoming-impossible-to-ignore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news2.watchtowatch.top\/?p=15046","title":{"rendered":"Seahawks&#8217; $177 million problem is quickly becoming impossible to ignore"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/news2.watchtowatch.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Ban-sao-cua-Demo-T4-2025-09-06T053223_991-1757111551-q80.webp\" alt=\"Seahawks&#x27; $177 million problem is quickly becoming impossible to ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width:100%; height:auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-0\">The Seattle Seahawks made a bold move this offseason,\u00a0trading receiver DK Metcalf\u00a0to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were already losing franchise stalwart Tyler Lockett as his age continued to show. Conventional wisdom said that with the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, they could put together an effective passing attack with two very good receivers.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-1\">But losing Metcalf meant Seattle would be\u00a0leaning considerably on Smith-Njigba\u00a0as he was coming off a 100-catch, 1,130-yard, six-touchdown season. General manager John Schneider had faith. Head coach Mike Macdonald had faith. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak had faith. And JSN has rewarded that faith as he is currently on pace for 1,966 yards, which would set a new NFL record.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-2\">Smith-Njigba\u2019s incredible pace, stacked on his solid rookie season and fantastic sophomore campaign, will have him poised to join the upper echelons of the NFL\u2019s best-paid wide receivers. But how high is high? Can JSN match Ja\u2019Marr Chase\u2019s record $40 million APY?<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-4\">You can think of NFL contracts similarly to the housing market. Each price is set by similar sales in the area. To find the best projection for JSN, it\u2019s best to find solid comps from previous receivers.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-5\">I decided to start with an organizational comp to see how Schneider has valued high-end receivers in the past. Luckily, there is a solid starting point from just three years ago with Metcalf.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-6\">In 2022, Schneider signed Metcalf after his third season in the league. The contract was for three years and $72 million, with $31 million guaranteed, according to\u00a0overthecap.com<strong>.\u00a0<\/strong>Against a salary cap that year of $208.2 million salary cap that year, Metcalf\u2019s $24 million average per year (APY) salary was 11.5% of the salary cap.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-7\">Here is how JSN\u2019s first three years production* compared to Metcalf\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-8\"><em>*This analysis assumes that Smith-Njigba\u2019s 2025 continues at his pace through Week 10.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Player<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Draft Round<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Age<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>3-yr Rec<\/p>\n<div class=\"in-article-ad\"><!-- \/22751588535,23055578086\/CafeX\/Feji.io_Banner_Responsive_4 --><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-1723273652002-0\" style=\"min-width: 300px; min-height: 250px;\">\n<script>\n    googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1723273652002-0'); });\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>3-yr Yds<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>3-yr TD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>3-yr yds\/rr<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>2-yr Rec<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>2-yr Yds<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>2-yr TD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>2-yr yds\/rr<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>PY Rec<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>PY Yds<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>PY TD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>PY yds\/rr<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jaxon Smith-Njigba (&#8217;23-&#8217;25)<\/p>\n<p>1<\/p>\n<p>24.5<\/p>\n<p>282<\/p>\n<p>3721<\/p>\n<p>19<\/p>\n<p>2.44<\/p>\n<p>219<\/p>\n<p>3096<\/p>\n<p>15<\/p>\n<p>2.94<\/p>\n<p>119<\/p>\n<p>1966<\/p>\n<p>9<\/p>\n<p>4.61<\/p>\n<p>DK Metcalf (&#8217;19-&#8217;21)<\/p>\n<p>2<\/p>\n<p>24.7<\/p>\n<p>211<\/p>\n<p>3170<\/p>\n<p>29<\/p>\n<p>1.91<\/p>\n<p>158<\/p>\n<p>2270<\/p>\n<p>22<\/p>\n<p>2.01<\/p>\n<p>75<\/p>\n<p>967<\/p>\n<p>12<\/p>\n<p>1.94<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-10\">JSN consistently outperforms Metcalf in most volume stats, as well as efficiency (yards per route run), with Metcalf proving to be the more prolific scorer. The case can be made that he, at least, should get a comparable valuation.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-11\">Applying Metcalf\u2019s 11.5% APY as a percent of cap to a forecasted $300 million salary cap in 2026 yields a $34.5 million APY and would make Smith-Njigba the third-highest paid receiver in the NFL behind only Chase and Justin Jefferson.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-13\">While Schneider may want to use Metcalf as the comp, Smith-Njigba\u2019s representation may want to look outside the Seahawks&#8217; history to push that number even higher. Using a three-year time horizon, his production looks extremely similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown\u2019s 2021-2023.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Player<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Draft Round<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Age<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Rec<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Catch Rate<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yds<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>yds\/rr<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>TD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>YAC<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>YAC\/rec<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Slot %<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>MTF %<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jaxon Smith-Njigba (&#8217;23-&#8217;25)<\/p>\n<p>1<\/p>\n<p>24.5<\/p>\n<p>286<\/p>\n<p>74.45%<\/p>\n<p>3773<\/p>\n<p>2.42<\/p>\n<p>19<\/p>\n<p>1341<\/p>\n<p>4.68<\/p>\n<p>64.71%<\/p>\n<p>11.48%<\/p>\n<p>Amon-Ra St. Brown (&#8217;21-&#8217;23)<\/p>\n<p>4<\/p>\n<p>24.9<\/p>\n<p>315<\/p>\n<p>76.46%<\/p>\n<p>3588<\/p>\n<p>2.27<\/p>\n<p>21<\/p>\n<p>1651<\/p>\n<p>5.24<\/p>\n<p>67.38%<\/p>\n<p>10.79%<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-15\">St. Brown is also his closest comp over a two-year time horizon. St.Brown\u2019s $30 million APY in 2024 was 11.75% of that year\u2019s cap, which would push JSN\u2019s APY expectation to $35.25 million. That would clear Jefferson and put him only behind Chase in average salary.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-16\">They could also cite CeeDee Lamb\u2019s two-year production leading into his 2024 deal.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Player<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Draft Round<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Age<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Rec<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Catch Rate<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yds<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>yds\/rr<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>TD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>YAC<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>YAC\/rec<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Slot %<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>MTF %<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jaxon Smith-Njigba (&#8217;24-&#8217;25)<\/p>\n<p>1<\/p>\n<p>24.5<\/p>\n<p>223<\/p>\n<p>75.81%<\/p>\n<p>3145<\/p>\n<p>2.91<\/p>\n<p>15<\/p>\n<p>971<\/p>\n<p>4.35<\/p>\n<p>60.89%<\/p>\n<p>12.04%<\/p>\n<p>Amon-Ra St. Brown (&#8217;22-&#8217;23)<\/p>\n<p>4<\/p>\n<p>24.9<\/p>\n<p>225<\/p>\n<p>75.76%<\/p>\n<p>2676<\/p>\n<p>2.53<\/p>\n<p>16<\/p>\n<p>1221<\/p>\n<p>5.43<\/p>\n<p>60.53%<\/p>\n<p>11.56%<\/p>\n<p>CeeDee Lamb (&#8217;22-&#8217;23)<\/p>\n<p>1<\/p>\n<p>25.4<\/p>\n<p>242<\/p>\n<p>74.01%<\/p>\n<p>3108<\/p>\n<p>2.59<\/p>\n<p>21<\/p>\n<p>1171<\/p>\n<p>4.84<\/p>\n<p>63.42%<\/p>\n<p>14.05%<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-18\">Lamb\u2019s $34 million APY\u00a0was 13.31% of the cap, the same year ARSB signed. If JSN could successfully make Lamb the comp, it would put his applied APY at $39.93 million &#8211; just spitting distance from Chase.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-20\">Smith-Njigba\u2019s 2025 has been stellar and record-setting. But his scoring production is still half of what Chase did just last year. That\u2019s going to hurt him in negotiations. And it\u2019s not a one-year aberration.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-21\">In general, he hasn\u2019t kept up with his contemporaries when it comes to getting into the end zone. And stacking up against last year\u2019s triple crown winner, there isn\u2019t enough of a case for him to clear Chase in my opinion.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Player<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Draft Round<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Age<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Rec<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yds<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>TD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>yds\/rr<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jaxon-Smith Njigba (2025)<\/p>\n<p>1<\/p>\n<p>24.5<\/p>\n<p>119<\/p>\n<p>1966<\/p>\n<p>9<\/p>\n<p>4.41<\/p>\n<p>Ja&#8217;Marr Chase (2024)<\/p>\n<p>1<\/p>\n<p>25.5<\/p>\n<p>127<\/p>\n<p>1708<\/p>\n<p>17<\/p>\n<p>2.41<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-23\">With these parameters in place, I could see a compromised position of splitting St. Brown\u2019s and Lamb\u2019s APYs as a percent of cap. That\u2019s 12.5% and puts his APY at $37.5 million.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-25\">While Metcalf kept his extension at just three years, I would imagine Schneider will want a fourth year to make JSN the clear-cut second-highest paid receiver and sixth-highest non-quarterback in the league.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-26\">That would put the total new money at $150 million while making the total new contract six years (including the fourth year of his rookie deal and his fifth-year option, which I am assuming will come in at the one Pro Bowl rate) and $177,087,996. Amazingly, that would keep his effective APY under $30 million per year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-27\">The structure will be interesting. Seattle will be hard-pressed to follow the Metcalf deal because of JSN\u2019s option being factored in. Instead, they will have to use the current contemporaries. $67.5 million fully guaranteed, with a total guarantee at $105 million, would be fair compared to the other highest-paid receivers in the NFL.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-28\">It would be wise for Schneider to get this done this offseason, because if he doesn\u2019t, the price will only go up.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">Once thought of as a master of the\u00a0Minnesota Vikings\u00a0offense,\u00a0Adam Thielen\u00a0says he is still adapting to learning the playbook since returning home.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">Thielen was traded back to Minnesota by the\u00a0Carolina Panthers\u00a0a little over a week ago after spending his first ten seasons with the Vikings.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">The 35-year-old veteran said headed into this season that head coach Kevin O\u2019Connell\u2019s offense sounds a bit unfamiliar, but he is working on it.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">\u201cAnybody that knows me knows that I\u2019m not the smartest guy in the world,\u201d Thielen said at media availability on Sept. 4. \u201cIt\u2019s definitely a different offense. I told my wife the other day. It\u2019s like you know English really well and Chinese you don\u2019t know, but they\u2019re saying the same thing. So, you know the concept, you know how it\u2019s supposed to run, but when you\u2019re in the huddle and you\u2019re hearing Chinese, it\u2019s like what the heck just happened. I don\u2019t know where I\u2019m supposed to line up, I don\u2019t know what I\u2019m supposed to do.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">Thielen said more practice reps will be better for consistency. He credits his coaches, teammates, and Vikings staff.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">Thielen, a hometown guy from Minnesota, said the transition from North Carolina has been \u201ca lot\u201d for his family as he has three young children with his wife, Caitlin.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">\u201cNever overwhelming, but it\u2019s a lot for sure\u201d he said. \u201c(My wife\u2019s)\u00a0been crushing it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">The move is happening as the new school year is getting underway.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">\u201cMy wife\u2019s a rock star,\u201d Thielen added.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">Overall, Thielen is happy to be back home.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">\u201cI\u2019m like a kid in a candy shop,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is what I love to do. Obviously this place means so much to me. So I\u2019m just happy to be here. I\u2019m happy to be in that huddle with a great group of guys, and great coaches.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">Thielen is not only reuniting with O\u2019Connell but his former pupil Justin Jefferson, as the Minnesota offense has turned into one of the perennial squads in the NFL.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">Thielen said it\u2019s been \u201cawesome\u201d watching Jefferson mature into leader at practice.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">\u201cJust like we never left,\u201d Thielen said. \u201cIt\u2019s been cool to see his maturity. I was with him as a young player and he was a very mature guy at that point in his career. But just to see him helping out other guys and caring about them in the individual drills. It\u2019s really cool to see. And in fact, we were kind of laughing about it, but he\u2019s been helping me out with the plays, which is just funny, because it was obviously the opposite early in his career.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">With one the best defensive coordinators in Brian Flores running the other side of the ball, the big question that remains for the Vikings is the quarterback position.<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">How good will 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy be, following Sam Darnold\u2019s 14-3 season leading the team?<\/p>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Articles \/ Paragraph Links\">The Vikings open the season at the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Seattle Seahawks made a bold move this offseason,\u00a0trading receiver DK Metcalf\u00a0to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were already losing franchise stalwart Tyler Lockett as his age continued to show. Conventional wisdom said&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hot-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Seattle Seahawks made a bold move this offseason, trading receiver DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were already losing franchise stalwart Tyler Lockett as his age continued to show. 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