The Seattle Seahawks made a bold move this offseason, trading receiver DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were already losing franchise stalwart Tyler Lockett as his age continued to show. Conventional wisdom said that with the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, they could put together an effective passing attack with two very good receivers.
But losing Metcalf meant Seattle would be leaning considerably on Smith-Njigba as he was coming off a 100-catch, 1,130-yard, six-touchdown season. General manager John Schneider had faith. Head coach Mike Macdonald had faith. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak had faith. And JSN has rewarded that faith as he is currently on pace for 1,966 yards, which would set a new NFL record.
Smith-Njigba’s incredible pace, stacked on his solid rookie season and fantastic sophomore campaign, will have him poised to join the upper echelons of the NFL’s best-paid wide receivers. But how high is high? Can JSN match Ja’Marr Chase’s record $40 million APY?
You can think of NFL contracts similarly to the housing market. Each price is set by similar sales in the area. To find the best projection for JSN, it’s best to find solid comps from previous receivers.
I decided to start with an organizational comp to see how Schneider has valued high-end receivers in the past. Luckily, there is a solid starting point from just three years ago with Metcalf.
In 2022, Schneider signed Metcalf after his third season in the league. The contract was for three years and $72 million, with $31 million guaranteed, according to overthecap.com. Against a salary cap that year of $208.2 million salary cap that year, Metcalf’s $24 million average per year (APY) salary was 11.5% of the salary cap.
Here is how JSN’s first three years production* compared to Metcalf’s.
*This analysis assumes that Smith-Njigba’s 2025 continues at his pace through Week 10.
Player
Draft Round
Age
3-yr Rec
3-yr Yds
3-yr TD
3-yr yds/rr
2-yr Rec
2-yr Yds
2-yr TD
2-yr yds/rr
PY Rec
PY Yds
PY TD
PY yds/rr
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (’23-’25)
1
24.5
282
3721
19
2.44
219
3096
15
2.94
119
1966
9
4.61
DK Metcalf (’19-’21)
2
24.7
211
3170
29
1.91
158
2270
22
2.01
75
967
12
1.94
JSN consistently outperforms Metcalf in most volume stats, as well as efficiency (yards per route run), with Metcalf proving to be the more prolific scorer. The case can be made that he, at least, should get a comparable valuation.
Applying Metcalf’s 11.5% APY as a percent of cap to a forecasted $300 million salary cap in 2026 yields a $34.5 million APY and would make Smith-Njigba the third-highest paid receiver in the NFL behind only Chase and Justin Jefferson.
While Schneider may want to use Metcalf as the comp, Smith-Njigba’s representation may want to look outside the Seahawks’ history to push that number even higher. Using a three-year time horizon, his production looks extremely similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 2021-2023.
Player
Draft Round
Age
Rec
Catch Rate
Yds
yds/rr
TD
YAC
YAC/rec
Slot %
MTF %
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (’23-’25)
1
24.5
286
74.45%
3773
2.42
19
1341
4.68
64.71%
11.48%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (’21-’23)
4
24.9
315
76.46%
3588
2.27
21
1651
5.24
67.38%
10.79%
St. Brown is also his closest comp over a two-year time horizon. St.Brown’s $30 million APY in 2024 was 11.75% of that year’s cap, which would push JSN’s APY expectation to $35.25 million. That would clear Jefferson and put him only behind Chase in average salary.
They could also cite CeeDee Lamb’s two-year production leading into his 2024 deal.
Player
Draft Round
Age
Rec
Catch Rate
Yds
yds/rr
TD
YAC
YAC/rec
Slot %
MTF %
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (’24-’25)
1
24.5
223
75.81%
3145
2.91
15
971
4.35
60.89%
12.04%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (’22-’23)
4
24.9
225
75.76%
2676
2.53
16
1221
5.43
60.53%
11.56%
CeeDee Lamb (’22-’23)
1
25.4
242
74.01%
3108
2.59
21
1171
4.84
63.42%
14.05%
Lamb’s $34 million APY was 13.31% of the cap, the same year ARSB signed. If JSN could successfully make Lamb the comp, it would put his applied APY at $39.93 million – just spitting distance from Chase.
Smith-Njigba’s 2025 has been stellar and record-setting. But his scoring production is still half of what Chase did just last year. That’s going to hurt him in negotiations. And it’s not a one-year aberration.
In general, he hasn’t kept up with his contemporaries when it comes to getting into the end zone. And stacking up against last year’s triple crown winner, there isn’t enough of a case for him to clear Chase in my opinion.
Player
Draft Round
Age
Rec
Yds
TD
yds/rr
Jaxon-Smith Njigba (2025)
1
24.5
119
1966
9
4.41
Ja’Marr Chase (2024)
1
25.5
127
1708
17
2.41
With these parameters in place, I could see a compromised position of splitting St. Brown’s and Lamb’s APYs as a percent of cap. That’s 12.5% and puts his APY at $37.5 million.
While Metcalf kept his extension at just three years, I would imagine Schneider will want a fourth year to make JSN the clear-cut second-highest paid receiver and sixth-highest non-quarterback in the league.
That would put the total new money at $150 million while making the total new contract six years (including the fourth year of his rookie deal and his fifth-year option, which I am assuming will come in at the one Pro Bowl rate) and $177,087,996. Amazingly, that would keep his effective APY under $30 million per year.
The structure will be interesting. Seattle will be hard-pressed to follow the Metcalf deal because of JSN’s option being factored in. Instead, they will have to use the current contemporaries. $67.5 million fully guaranteed, with a total guarantee at $105 million, would be fair compared to the other highest-paid receivers in the NFL.
It would be wise for Schneider to get this done this offseason, because if he doesn’t, the price will only go up.
Once thought of as a master of the Minnesota Vikings offense, Adam Thielen says he is still adapting to learning the playbook since returning home.
Thielen was traded back to Minnesota by the Carolina Panthers a little over a week ago after spending his first ten seasons with the Vikings.
The 35-year-old veteran said headed into this season that head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense sounds a bit unfamiliar, but he is working on it.
“Anybody that knows me knows that I’m not the smartest guy in the world,” Thielen said at media availability on Sept. 4. “It’s definitely a different offense. I told my wife the other day. It’s like you know English really well and Chinese you don’t know, but they’re saying the same thing. So, you know the concept, you know how it’s supposed to run, but when you’re in the huddle and you’re hearing Chinese, it’s like what the heck just happened. I don’t know where I’m supposed to line up, I don’t know what I’m supposed to do.”
Thielen said more practice reps will be better for consistency. He credits his coaches, teammates, and Vikings staff.
Thielen, a hometown guy from Minnesota, said the transition from North Carolina has been “a lot” for his family as he has three young children with his wife, Caitlin.
“Never overwhelming, but it’s a lot for sure” he said. “(My wife’s) been crushing it.”
The move is happening as the new school year is getting underway.
“My wife’s a rock star,” Thielen added.
Overall, Thielen is happy to be back home.
“I’m like a kid in a candy shop,” he said. “This is what I love to do. Obviously this place means so much to me. So I’m just happy to be here. I’m happy to be in that huddle with a great group of guys, and great coaches.”
Thielen is not only reuniting with O’Connell but his former pupil Justin Jefferson, as the Minnesota offense has turned into one of the perennial squads in the NFL.
Thielen said it’s been “awesome” watching Jefferson mature into leader at practice.
“Just like we never left,” Thielen said. “It’s been cool to see his maturity. I was with him as a young player and he was a very mature guy at that point in his career. But just to see him helping out other guys and caring about them in the individual drills. It’s really cool to see. And in fact, we were kind of laughing about it, but he’s been helping me out with the plays, which is just funny, because it was obviously the opposite early in his career.”
With one the best defensive coordinators in Brian Flores running the other side of the ball, the big question that remains for the Vikings is the quarterback position.
How good will 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy be, following Sam Darnold’s 14-3 season leading the team?
The Vikings open the season at the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.