Back in late September, after the Houston Texans dropped to 0-3 to start the 2025 NFL season, I broke down the remainder of Houston’s schedule and outlined a path for the two-time defending AFC South champs to return to the Playoffs, despite just 2.4% of teams who start the season 0-3 overcoming that slow start to play into the month of January.
Game by game I went through each of the remaining 14 matchups, using both Mike Clay’s preseason win probabilities and my own gut to determine whether it was realistic to believe that the Texans could actually dig themselves out of this hole. The conclusion that I arrived at was,
The issue here for the Texans is that presently they are 5-5, having just survived an ugly scare in Nashville against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. In my late-September exercise, I had the Texans pegged for 6-4 at this juncture of the season, so you could argue that right now the Texans are actually behind the curve.
However, the state of the rest of the AFC lends itself quite well to Houston’s hopes of a postseason return. Presently, Houston is the 8-seed in the AFC, deadlocked with the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens on the outside looking in at the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4), and Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) as teams who are just one game up in the loss column.
So for a second, I want you to try to forget about the improbability of the Texans making the Playoffs after an 0-3 start. For the sake of today’s exercise, it doesn’t matter when Houston earned their 5 wins, or got dealt their 5 losses. They are 5-5 and one game out of the Playoffs, so now it’s time to take what we’ve learned from the first 11 weeks of the NFL season and run our late-September exercise back and determine what Houston’s end of season record may look like once again.
Just as I did last time, let’s start by taking a look at Mike Clay’s preseason win probabilities for each of the remaining 7 games on Houston’s schedule.
Week
Opponent
Win Probability
12
vs. Buffalo
37%
13
at Indianapolis
51%
14
at Kansas City
38%
15
vs. Arizona
58%
16
vs. Las Vegas
74%
17
at LA Chargers
48%
18
vs. Indianapolis
59%
Week 12 – vs. Buffalo Bills
Last time around I noted that when the Texans and Bills played last year, Houston’s D forced eventual 2024 MVP Josh Allen into what may have been the worst game of his NFL career. The Texans recipe for success against Buffalo hasn’t changed this time around. Allen is coming off of a 6 total touchdown performance against Tampa Bay, but the Bucs don’t have the horses to get after the league’s best quarterback like the Texans defense does.
In the end, this comes down to not only how great Houston’s defense is, but also how capable the Texans offense is against Buffalo’s defense, because I still believe you need to put at least 21 points on the board to beat the Bills. I know Davis Mills is 2-0 in relief of CJ Stroud, but with Stroud’s status for this short week matchup with Buffalo still up in the air, I just can’t see Mills getting to 3-0 this year.
Projected Record: 5-6
Week 13 – at Indianapolis Colts
Houston boasts one of the best run defenses in the league, holding opponents to the 3rd-fewest yards and 4th-fewest yards per carry this season. Maintaining that caliber of play against Jonathan Taylor, who really should be right at the top of the MVP race this year — is necessary in order to beat Indianapolis.
If the Texans can do it — and that’s a big if considering how unbelievable JT has been this year — then it comes down to Daniel Jones, and I’m still convinced he’s going to turn into a pumpkin at some point this season. He’s had a couple of shaky performances of late, and he hasn’t faced a defense as good as Houston’s yet. Give me the Texans with an extra few days of rest in an upset to make things awfully interesting in the South.
Projected Record: 6-6
Week 14 – at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes Houston went punch for punch with KC last year in the divisional round, but a desperate Chiefs team trying to stay in the AFC Playoff race is not an opponent I’d be eager to face early in the month of December. As noted prior, Patrick Mahomes is 26-6 in his career during the holiday season.
Projected Record: 6-7
Week 15 – vs. Arizona Cardinals / Week 16 – vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Thus far this season, Houston’s five losses have come to three division leaders — Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos — and two teams currently holding down Wild Card spots — Jacksonville Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks. Even if it’s ugly, which as I said before, it was against the Titans in Week 11, Houston hasn’t lost to a below .500 team yet this year, and I think that trend will continue coming out of back to back home games against the Cardinals and Raiders.
Projected Record: 8-7
Week 17 – at Los Angeles Chargers
After the Chargers got socked in the mouth by the Jaguars this past weekend, I don’t know what to think about Jim Harbaugh’s squad. Jacksonville did not look to me like a team that was ready to beat anybody by 29 points, and that’s exactly what they did to Los Angeles yesterday. Maybe the injuries are adding up and finally taking a toll on the Bolts, but suddenly, this game doesn’t seem like as daunting of a challenge.
Projected Record: 9-7
Week 18 – vs. Indianapolis Colts
As we arrive at the final game of the season, I do feel like I was a little generous giving Houston a win in Indy back in Week 13, but even though I’m more than capable of going back in and re-writing that section, I’m choosing to believe that everything I’ve written already has been established as fact, so congratulations, I guess?
It’s possible we arrive at this game and Indy has nothing to play for. It’s also possible that Daniel Jones’ pending transformation from elite QB to pumpkin could derail this entire Colts season, leaving Indianapolis with a whole lot to play for in Week 18. I’ll remain an optimist and believe that the Texans could end up rolling into the postseason with a 10-7 record and some semblance of momentum, and that’s dangerous.
Projected Record: 10-7
The Dallas Cowboys continue to mourn the death of 24-year-old defender Marshawn Kneeland. Amid the tragedy, the Frisco Police Department revealed that Kneeland’s cause of death was a self-inflicted gunshot wound.
“On November 5, 2025, at approximately 10:39 p.m., the Frisco Police Department responded to assist the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) with locating a vehicle that had evaded troopers during a pursuit that entered the city of Frisco,” the police department’s statement detailed on November 6, 2025. “After losing visual of the vehicle, troopers located it minutes later, crashed on southbound Dallas Parkway near Warren Parkway.
“Initial reports indicated that a male subject, later identified as 24-year-old Marshawn Kneeland of Plano, TX fled the scene on foot. Officers established a perimeter and initiated a search of the area with the assistance of the FPD K-9 and Drone units,” the press release added.
“During the course of the search, officers received information that Kneeland had expressed suicidal ideations. Kneeland was later located at 1:31 a.m., deceased with what appeared to be a self-inflicted gunshot wound. The cause/manner of death will be determined by the Collin County Medical Examiner’s Office.”
As more details are released about Kneeland’s death, it has become apparent that the former Cowboys pass rusher was dealing with mental health challenges. Shortly before his death, Kneeland sent text messages to his girlfriend Catalina Mancera, per The Athletic.
“The Athletic reviewed a Frisco police dispatch recording from around 11:30 p.m., in which an officer said police were talking to Kneeland’s girlfriend, who did not know where he was,” The Athletic detailed in a November 6, story titled, “Cowboys’ Marshawn Kneeland dies after apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound following police chase.”
“She’s saying he is armed and has a history of mental illness. And her quote was, ‘He will end it all,’ the officer said on the recording.
“Soon after, the officer said Kneeland’s girlfriend was trying to call his agent, while other officers were trying to ping his phone with help from Verizon, his mobile carrier.”
Marshawn Kneeland’s Car Struck a Pickup Truck Hours Before His Death: Report
A scary scene emerged prior to Kneeland’s passing on November 6. Kneeland’s car struck a pickup truck following a police chase prior to his death, per The Athletic’s Mike Wilson and Alex Andrejev.
“Before dying from an apparently self-inflicted gunshot wound early Thursday in Frisco, Texas, Dallas Cowboys defensive end Marshawn Kneeland crashed the car he was driving into a pickup truck after a police chase, the Texas Department of Public Safety confirmed to The Athletic on Friday,” Wilson and Andrejev wrote in a November 7, article titled, “Cowboys’ Marshawn Kneeland’s car crashed into pickup truck after police chase.”
“After the crash, Kneeland abandoned his car on foot. He was found dead at 1:31 a.m. Thursday.”
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been outspoken in pushing for suicide prevention. Prescott lost his brother Jace Prescott to suicide in April 2020.
“I hurt (with a) heavy, heavy heart today,” Prescott explained to CBS News Texas during a November 6, interview. “I hurt for Marshawn, I hurt for his family. I hurt for his girlfriend. I hurt for every single one of my teammates. This is a pain that you don’t wish upon anybody. You wish none of us had to go through this.
“You wish Marshawn didn’t have to go through what he went through and just thankful for each moment we have in this life. And don’t take it for granted. And hug and love on those that you do (have),” Prescott added.
“It’s okay to feel however you’re feeling. And I’ll tell you first and foremost, I don’t always have the answers, and today’s not a day that I felt like I had answers.”