U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) holds a slight lead over incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, in next year’s New York gubernatorial race, according to a shock poll conducted by the Manhattan Institute.
The poll found Stefanik — a staunch Trump ally who was initially nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations before the president asked her to remain in Congress — leading Hochul by one percentage point (43-42) among registered voters. An additional six percent of respondents indicated that they remain unsure, while nine percent of respondents said they would vote for a third party candidate.
Stefanik’s lead was even greater over current New York lieutenant governor Antonio Delgado, who has announced a primary challenge against Hochul. In a hypothetical matchup against Delgado, Stefanik leads by six percentage points, the poll found. A greater number of voters said they were either unsure or would vote for a third-party candidate (20 percent) in this scenario, reflecting a likely lack of name recognition for the lieutenant governor.
“While more than a year remains until Election Day, these findings underscore that New York’s next statewide race could be its most competitive in decades,” Manhattan Institute polling chief Jesse Arm wrote in his analysis.
Stefanik has long indicated her interest in a gubernatorial bid and is reportedly set to make a formal announcement in November, according to a report from Politico. “She got very good advice from [former New York governor] Pataki. It was ‘don’t cloud the local elections,’” New York GOP Chair Ed Cox told the outlet. “She just doesn’t want to get mixed up in the local elections, let those happen, let the candidates carry that, let them be highlighted, and then after that she will declare.”
The congresswoman is heavily favored to secure the Republican nomination as of this report. Fellow U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) has also been viewed as a potential candidate, as he is one of the few Republican lawmakers representing a district that leans Democrat on the Cook Partisan Voting Index.
Lawler announced earlier this year that he was not considering a bid, however, Additional candidates have expressed interest, though they have yet to find any polling success.
A June survey from Siena College, which was conducted before Lawler said he would not be running, found Stefanik out in front with 35 percent of the vote. Lawler trailed in second with 18 percent, while Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman trailed in a distant third with seven percent.
A sizable number of respondents, 39 percent, remained undecided.
Republicans will be hoping to build on solid gains made in the deep blue stronghold during the last midterm elections cycle. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans made notable inroads, capitalizing on voter concerns over crime, inflation, and migration. The party managed to flip three U.S. House seats (NY-03, NY-17, and NY-19), increasing their delegation from eight to 11 out of 26 districts, good for their best showing since 2000.
Current EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has been widely credited with playing a key role in the rightward swing, as he mounted a formidable challenge against Hochul in the state’s gubernatorial election. Zeldin managed to secure 46.7 percent of the vote to Hochul’s 53.1 percent, making the race the closest in New York since 1994.
Zeldin received 2,762,581 votes, surpassing Marc Molinaro’s 2018 total (1,854,131) by over 900,000, a gain of nearly 50 percent that boosted the overall GOP share of the vote from 33.3 percent to 46.7 percent, a gain of 13.4 percentage points. Hochul, on the other hand, underperformed Andrew Cuomo’s 2018 haul by about 500,000 votes (3,140,415 vs. 3,635,340).
Every county shifted rightward when compared with 2020 presidential results, with Zeldin winning 49 of 62 counties and sweeping Long Island.
CNN’s “Inside Politics,” host Dana Bash pushed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries aggressively on the ongoing government shutdown and questioned his party’s role in resolving the impasse.
Bash repeatedly challenged Jeffries’s narrative that Democrats were ready to negotiate, suggesting instead that the real paralysis lay within Democratic leadership’s own demands.
At one point, Bash pressed Jeffries: “You say you want to talk, but Speaker Johnson apparently hasn’t been given permission to meet with you — have you tried knocking on his door, walking down the hall?”
Jeffries responded that Republicans had cut off communication, arguing that informal meetings would not be fruitful without willingness on the part of congressional leadership.
But Bash would not let the exchange end there.
She pressed whether the Democratic proposal — which included extending Affordable Care Act subsidies and reversing GOP healthcare cuts — was negotiable, or whether it was a nonstarter.
Jeffries maintained that Democrats remained open to bipartisan solutions but insisted Republicans had gone “radio silent.”
The tension escalated when Bash framed a question in a blunt, almost confrontational tone: “You could probably take a few steps… have you tried that?”
At several junctures, Bash’s questioning seemed designed to corner Jeffries into accountability, undermining his attempt to shift blame entirely to Republicans.
She also raised the inconsistency of Jeffries’s position, pointing out that what he called “negotiable” may not actually be open to compromise if Democrats hold firm on all their demands.
Jeffries attempted to shift the blame back, saying Republicans had repeatedly tried to repeal the ACA and were unwilling to extend subsidies without structural changes.
Bash followed up by asking whether he would support a one-year extension of those subsidies if Republicans would allow it.
Jeffries demurred, saying he was not ready to accept that narrow fix without broader action.
Through the interview, Bash adopted a skeptical posture toward Jeffries’s narrative — something that conservatives seized on as evidence that even legacy media are now pushing back harder on Democratic talking points.
Conservatives applauded Bash’s refusal to act as a passive conduit for official messaging. One commentator called the moment a turning point in media deference.
Social media users echoed the sentiment: “Even leftist CNN’s Bash shuts down Jeffries’ shutdown whine — caught off guard with brutal challenge.”
The exchange also undercut Jeffries’s argument that Democrats were trying to negotiate in good faith.
Bash sought to expose whether those overtures were real or rhetorical cover.
From a conservative vantage, this marked a welcome line of questioning from mainstream media — one that forces Democratic leaders to defend their posture rather than allowing them to dominate the narrative unchallenged.
The interview ended without a clear breakthrough, but the dynamic was telling: more pressure on Jeffries, less room for him to stick to the standard talking points.
In the coming days, this exchange may be referenced by Republicans as evidence that Democratic leaders aren’t being upfront about what they’re willing or unwilling to give up in negotiations.