Patrick Mahomes has won 13 of 14 starts against the Denver Broncos, but the Chiefs QB’s numbers might surprise you.
If the NFL playoffs began today, the Kansas City Chiefs would not take part. They are 5-4, but currently the eight-seed in the AFC. Yet, they are still the odds-on favorite to reach the Super Bowl. That, of course, has a lot to do with their pedigree and who their quarterback is.
But this week, Patrick Mahomes will face maybe his biggest test of the season as the Chiefs prepare to face the Denver Broncos.
On Wednesday, ESPN’s Field Yates broke down why that is. He also detailed Mahomes’ surprising struggles vs. the division foe.
“You might see his career stats against the Broncos and see 13 wins in 14 games for the Chiefs… but Mahomes has only accounted for 20 passing touchdowns in those 14 games.”
Indeed, Kansas City has won 13 of Mahomes’ 14 starts against the Broncos, going back to his second season in the NFL. But the vast majority have been very close and low-scoring.
He then detailed why this year may prove to be the most difficult test yet.
“They have been good on defense for the last few seasons. But I think this is the best version of the Broncos defense.”
“The Broncos are as good as it gets defensively in the red zone… allow the third fewest trips to the red zone this season. You don’t get there that often. No team has held opponents to either field goals, turnovers, or turnover on downs in the red zone at a higher percentage than the Broncos defense. They tighten the screws when you do get there.”
In his career, the Chiefs quarterback has 20 touchdown passes to 11 interceptions. For most players, a 2-to-1 ratio is solid, but not for Mahomes. The game is in Denver, making it that much more difficult.
Mahomes is tied with Steve Young (13-1 vs. Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) with the best winning percentage in NFL history against a single opponent with at least 14 starts.
The Chiefs’ defense is good, but there are ways to expose it – this unit allows the third-highest completion percentage in the NFL, which could be great for Bo Nix. The Chiefs allow 71.5% of passes they face to be completed, but they still have a good defense overall.
The thing here is that the unit, led by Steve Spagnuolo, limits the big plays down the field – that’s what they excel in, but, in order to do that, you kind of have to give up a lot underneath, which is why the completion percentage is so high. The Broncos do love a lot of those underneath routes, so this could be perfect.
Bo Nix’s completion percentage has also fallen this year, so getting some easy completions could be great for him mentally, and with the possibility that Marvin Mims Jr returns to the lineup, there will still be a chance to take some shots down the field.
Kansas City’s redzone defense just isn’t that good, as they allow opposing offenses to score a touchdown nearly 64% of the time, which is a bottom-10 figure in the NFL. While Spagnuolo is well-known as one of the best coordinators in the NFL, his unit does lack some talent overall, and coaching can only go so far sometimes.
With this game likely being on the lower-scoring side, Denver will have to capitalize on their redzone trips, and going up against a below-average redzone defense can help with that.
Another thing this defense does not do all that well is take down the quarterback. Overall, the pass rush just does not have much juice, and a huge indicator of a competent pass rush is how many times they can seal the deal and take the QB down. Well, the Chiefs have just 20 sacks on the season, which is the seventh-fewest in the NFL. For context, the Denver Broncos have 46 sacks on the season, which is more than double.
With the Broncos’ offensive line also protecting at a high level, and Bo Nix avoiding sacks better than any QB in the league, he should have a ton of time to throw, which could allow for a much more efficient outing, which is something he and the offense need.
The NFL world once again surged after Erin Andrews posed a bold doubt on television broadcast:
After Brock Purdy suffered a shoulder injury in Week 2 and had to sit out most of the season, the 49ers handed over the leadership of the offense to Mac Jones, who just joined the team in early October. Since taking the starting position, Jones has helped San Francisco achieve a 6–4 record, secure three consecutive wins and breathe new life into Head Coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Faced with the controversial comments, Mac Jones chose a calm way to respond instead of reacting harshly. “I am not here to replace anyone,” he said after practice at Levi’s Stadium.
Head Coach Kyle Shanahan also quickly expressed his view when asked about the “Purdy – Jones debate”: “Both are wonderful men and professional role models. We do not choose between them – we choose to win together.”
This statement received strong agreement from fans, who have always been proud of the 49ers’ “team over individual” culture.
Although the media tried to turn it into a competition between two eras, the truth remains very clear in Santa Clara: Brock Purdy is the one who started this journey, and Mac Jones is continuing to write it. With team spirit and mutual respect, the 49ers are not just regaining form – they are showing the entire NFL that the true mettle of a champion does not lie in the name on the jersey, but in the symbol on the left chest.