The Atlanta Falcons boast a surplus of talent on offense, but the only missing piece is a competent offensive coordinator. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has failed at every turn to tailor his scheme to Michael Penix Jr.’s strengths that the fanbase has fully turned on the second-year OC.
It’s bad enough that this offense has failed to average 20 points per game despite having elite weapons like Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts. But it gets even worse when you consider that the Dirty Birds are consistently lining up in the pistol formation, which isn’t where Penix excels.
Former NFL linebacker Will Compton tweeted that the Falcons are dead last in the NFL in snaps under center, as they are lining up under center just 6% of the time. This is why opposing defensive coordinators have easily figured out Robinson’s scheme, because he’s running a pee wee offense.
Penix boasts a fantastic arm and was one of the best play-action quarterbacks in the nation at Washington, but Atlanta’s scheme doesn’t allow him to do that often enough. And it’s that predictable play-calling that has resulted in the run game going stagnant across the four-game losing streak.
The Falcons have a world-class running back, and lining up under center has been just as detrimental to his production as it has Penix. The 23-year-old hasn’t surpassed 100 rushing yards since Week 6, and that’s because his OC has no clue how to utilize his generational talent in any capacity.
Ideally, using Bijan to sell play-action plays should help set up the downfield shots that this offense has been missing. It should see the 25-year-old establish rapport with both Drake London and Darnell Mooney—while utilizing the third-year back as a clear safety valve in the receiving game.
Not to mention, if the play-action game starts humming, it will force defenses to respect Penix and the air attack—which many teams have yet to do this season. And once the passing game grows more consistent, it would force opposing DC’s not to stack the box against Bijan and Tyler Allgeier.
Atlanta’s run game has suffered due to both Robinson’s unwillingness to adapt his scheme and Raheem Morris’ delusional belief that this offense will just magically figure things out overnight. It’s starting to look like both coaches need to go before they continue to stunt Penix’s development.
The second-year starter has undoubtedly cemented himself as the Falcons’ franchise quarterback, but he has yet to prove he is anything more than an average starter. Abandoning the pistol and dialing up more play-action looks under center could be the only way for Penix and this offense to overcome horrid play-calling to make a playoff push.
The Atlanta Falcons have mastered the art of playing well in most aspects of a game, only to be let down by the complete failure of another phase.
Take Week 9’s loss to the New England Patriots, for example. Teams that were +2 on turnovers and +5 on sacks were 64-0 in the last 10 years, until the Falcons lost 24-23.
Atlanta held the Indianapolis Colts to 1 for 11 on third downs through 60 minutes and 2 for 12 through regulation and overtime, and still lost.
The culprit the last few weeks has been Atlanta’s own woeful performance on third down. The Falcons didn’t convert any of their eight third-down attempts on Sunday against the Colts, and they are 3 for 29 in their last three games… all losses.
What happens next for the Atlanta Falcons? Don’t miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Falcons news delivered to your inbox daily!
For perspective, 3 for 29 is a 10.3% conversion rate. The Tennessee Titans are the worst 3rd-down team in the NFL, at nearly triple that rate at 28.4%.
When offensive coordinator Zac Robinson stepped up to the microphone this week, third downs were a hot topic.
“Yeah, I think as you look at the entirety of the last couple weeks, each third down has its own story,” Robinson said this week. “You’re looking for common themes. Each are different plays, different coverages. We’ve definitely got to clean that up. We’ve definitely got to execute when we have chances too. We’ve got to make sure we have the right answers for the guys, as coaches, all those things.”
Robinson delved into his habit of blaming busted assignments for many of the Falcons’ problems.
“We’ve got to communicate,” Robinson said. “The first third down, we get into a check and one of the guys doesn’t get it, and so, it results in a strip sack. So, we’ve got to get that stuff off the tape for sure.
Teams have also been leaning into the Miami Dolphins’ defensive plan against the Falcons of selling out on first and second down to stop Bijan Robinson. Stop Bijan, stop the Falcons.
“We also can do a better job avoiding third-and-longs,” Robinson said. “We’ve been the first five weeks, I think we were the lowest in the league in terms of the amount of third-and-longs. We were pretty efficient on third downs. Now the last five weeks, we’ve been in way too many third-and-long situations, which are going to be difficult. But, that can help with early down efficiency.
“All those things factor into it from first, second down to third down. We get those chances no matter what the D&D (Down and Distance) is on third down, we’ve got to find a way. We’re putting, obviously, a big emphasis on it with the pass protection and routes and just connecting on things. Like I said, as coaches, just making sure we’ve got the right answers for the guys.”
The Falcons have had injuries on the offensive line and have played with third-string tackle Eli Wilkinson all season, and third-string left guard Kyle Hinton was forced into action against the Colts. The new players are handicapped by what has been deemed a predictable offense from Robinson. Bijan, Bijan, incomplete, punt.
“We’ll work any of the things that have shown up on tape that we’ve had difficulty picking up from a line-game standpoint, making sure we’re all clean with some of the pass ops up front,” Robinson said. “But we look at all of it. We look at route detail. We look at what’s going on up front. All those things that are playing a factor into it.”
The Falcons kick off on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers (5-5) at 1 p.m. at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta was embarrassed by the Panthers in Charlotte and will need to put together a complete game if they’re going to save face against an improved Panthers team.
The Falcons held the Panthers to 224 yards of total offense, yet were let down by their offense and special teams in the 30-0 blowout in Week 3.
Less predictability on first and second down, should lead to shorter third-down attempts. If the Falcons can’t improve on their 10% rate from the last three weeks, it could be another embarrassing afternoon against the Panthers.