When Filip Gustavsson signed his five-year, $34 million extension before the season started, the Minnesota Wild’s plans didn’t actually change all that much. The Wild may have secured a starting-caliber goalie for the long term, but there was plenty of room for Goalie of the Future candidate Jesper Wallstedt to carve out a starting job of his own.
Well, game on.
“The Great Wall of St. Paul” has made an early statement. Coming off two weeks of rest after his only bad start of the season — allowing six goals on 25 shots against the San Jose Sharks on October 26 — Wallstedt showed that he could leave his failures behind and shut them out. Literally. He won on the road against the New York Islanders, giving his team a win on the second half of a back-to-back, then blanked the Calgary Flames for his second career shutout.
As it stands, Wallstedt has a .909 save percentage, and Minnesota has points in all five of his starts (3-0-2). Meanwhile, their starter Gustavsson has a 4-7-1 record and a .896 save percentage in 12 starts.
That start has to be concerning to Wild fans with a long memory. Before Gustavsson seized the No. 1 goalie role last year, he struggled out of the gate in the 2023-24 season. Through 12 starts, Gustavsson sported a 3-6-2 record paired with an .886 save percentage. The “Gus Bus” never really got back on track. He finished the year with a 20-18-4 record and a .899 save percentage.
These two starts look similar on the surface, and that would create an opening for Wallstedt.
But they aren’t very similar. Not at all. And this is still Gustavsson’s net (for now) with good reason.
For one, we probably need to recalibrate what “sub-.900 save percentage” means. We’re not just in Year 3 of the league-average save percentage being below .900; the line keeps going down as skaters are starting to convert on nearly 11% of their shots. After reaching its Analytics Era Peak in 2013-14, the NHL’s all situations save percentage has dropped in each of the past 12 seasons.
2013-14: .9120
2014-15: .9118
2015-16: .9112
2016-17: .9110
2017-18: .9094
2018-19: .9062
2019-20: .9060
2020-21: .9042
2021-22: .9024
2022-23: .9004
2023-24: .8991
2024-25: .8941
2025-26: .8908
The Second Dead Puck Era is, well, dead. Ever since Kirill Kaprizov entered the league (I refuse to believe this is coincidence), save percentages have tumbled. Gustavsson’s .899 save percentage in 2023-24 was, believe it or not, league average! Gustavsson’s .896 is somehow five points above league average!
A slight knock on Gustavsson during his time with the Wild is that his save percentage is boosted by the franchise’s historical tendency toward structured defensive play. Gustavsson deserves credit for making the stops, of course, but Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Marcus Foligno have often been there to make things easier on him.
If that were still true this season, Gustavsson’s save percentage would be a pretty big red flag. Fortunately for Gustavsson (though, perhaps not the rest of the team), that’s not the case. The Wild are 22nd in expected goals allowed per hour in all situations (3.54), and 27th at 5-on-5 (2.95). Not only that, but Gustavsson has taken the brunt of those bad defensive performances.
Gustavsson’s teammates have often hung him out to dry. Only Juuse Saros of the Nashville Predators has seen more shot attempts against than Gustavsson, and he’s almost constantly under siege. He’s faced five expected goals against twice this season, including his last start against the Carolina Hurricanes. He’s also seen 3.5-plus expected goals against in more games (six) than he has below 3.0 (five).
Part of this is the Wild’s faltering defense, but it’s also a product of matchups. Gustavsson has already faced five of the NHL’s top-10 teams in expected goals per hour in all situations, and eight of the league’s top-15 teams.
Meanwhile, John Hynes has done a masterful job of giving Wallstedt favorable matchups to boost his confidence. The Islanders are the only team in the league’s top-20 in expected goals per hour (all situations) that Wallstedt has seen, and three of his five starts have come against the six worst offensive teams.
Accounting for this constant bombardment, Gustavsson has done pretty well. The Gus Bus has only truly stalled out for two games: October 11 against the Columbus Blue Jackets (6 goals on 3.53 expected) and October 28 against the Winnipeg Jets (4 goals on 2.36 expected). Those are the only times he’s given up more than a full goal than expected, and he’s been a positive in seven of his 12 starts. All told, he ranks 24th in the NHL with 3.67 Goals Saved Above Expected, which is notably ahead of Wallstedt (43rd, 0.60 GSAx).
That’s not to say there’s no room for improvement. Gustavsson should keep working on his game-to-game consistency, and hey, there’s nothing in the rulebook that says you can’t steal a game when you’re getting badly outshot. Nor is it to take away from what Wallstedt is doing, which is exactly what the team was hoping for following his lost season.
Wallstedt is clearly making a push to make the Wild’s net more of a timeshare. That’s a good thing for Wallstedt, and it’s probably a good thing for Gustavsson. As of tonight’s anticipated start, Gustavsson will be on pace to start 59 games, which is a bit on the high side. But even as Wallstedt chips away at that number, and despite the ugly-looking numbers, Gustavsson is still deserving of drawing in most of his starts.
“We’ve got to be better, plain and simple. There’s no excuse for where we are right now. We need to hold ourselves accountable and make the necessary changes, because this isn’t acceptable.”
— Alex Tuch, Buffalo Sabres Forward
Buffalo Sabres fans, brace yourselves: change is coming. After yet another brutal defeat — a 5-2 loss to Utah followed by a 6-2 drubbing by the Colorado Avalanche — it’s clear that this team is nowhere near the contender they were supposed to be this season. And for fans who’ve waited 14 years for a playoff spot, the latest string of losses is a hard pill to swallow. With Buffalo’s record now at a dismal
Sabres in Crisis Mode: A Season on the Brink
The loss to the Avalanche capped off a disastrous five-game losing streak, with
The truth is, the Sabres have been in this situation for far too long. The fans are fed up, and even the players are starting to admit what’s been painfully obvious:
The End of the Line for Adams and Ruff?
At this point, there is no denying that accountability must fall on both
As Tuch stated, “There’s no excuse for where we are right now.” The Sabres have been left behind in a rapidly advancing NHL, and with another playoff-less season on the horizon, it’s time for ownership to act.
The Roster Shake-Up: Who’s Safe and Who’s Not?
But it’s not just the front office and coaching staff that needs to change. With this current Sabres team showing no signs of getting it together, nearly
The Sabres need to shed their past — and that means moving out players who aren’t contributing to the rebuild. It’s a painful reality, but every player needs to be held accountable
for this team’s continued failure. It’s no longer about potential or promises — it’s about delivering results, and if you’re not part of the solution, you’ll be part of the problem.
Buffalo’s Road to Redemption: How to Fix the Sabres?
So, what now for Buffalo? The road to redemption starts with tough decisions. Kevyn Adams will need to make bold moves to reshape the roster, bringing in fresh talent to bolster the lineup. The Sabres’ defense needs a complete overhaul, and the goaltending situation is looking more desperate by the day. The team can no longer afford to let mediocrity slip by — it’s time to build a playoff-caliber team, and the clock is ticking.
This won’t be an easy fix, but with the right moves, Buffalo could finally start to dig itself out of this hole. The fans deserve a competitive team, and the Sabres owe it to themselves to deliver.
Can the Sabres Turn It Around?
There’s no sugar-coating it — the Sabres’ current path is not sustainable. Another year of misery for Buffalo fans will simply not do. As the Sabres face the harsh reality of their worst season in recent memory, one thing is clear: the status quo cannot continue. The front office and coaching staff need to make bold, immediate changes. The future of the Buffalo Sabres depends on it.
The time for change is now — and for the first time in years, it feels like the Sabres have no choice but to start fresh.